Record collecting, how long will it last?

I have been getting on with the job of buying in wanted items on the collection. Once again I have been bitten by idiot traders that can't be bothered to list an item properly. This time it was Frazier Chorus and the alternative release of Sloppy Heart re-released on Virgin in an unusual card sleeve, the important bit being the card sleeve, as without the sleeve, the version is then incomplete. As seems to be the typical story, the sleeve by the trader was graded as EX+ which looked positive, only to find on delivery that there was no card sleeve just a plain black die cut sleeve that anyone could have added. One complaint to the trader later was met with the typical indifference and lack of any surprise.

A couple of weeks later I found the same item from a more respectable outlet, let's see what difference that makes.

Over the past month I have noticed a worrying, but so far small, slip in the natural climb of music collection worth. I know that collectors only keep a small eye on what is happening as regards the monetary value of their collection, but what is happening in the market is important. If the market drops and people stop buying, apart from the value going down, traders stop trading and many important pieces of music may well end up in landfill. Ok, so that's an extreme end of the loss of value, but while it may seem good that prices go down for the collector in the short term, a fall in general value of music collections would look bad for the second hand industry and bad for the collectors and material would be a lot harder to find.

I have attempted to keep on eye on the general value trend of the market myself by keeping a spreadsheet of data going by adding to the spreadsheet the market value each day. At the moment I have 2,437 items in my collection, of which only a part is devoted to 4AD. The range of genre's and styles in my collection is pretty varied and so I think this gives a reasonable representation of the variations in the market. What I have done for the past couple of years is take the average selling price of releases sold on Discogs, then got the average of those across my entire collection. I have a couple of rarities and a whole load of stuff worth next to nothing. I think the results have always been quite interesting. As time has passed and more is added to my collection, the more accurate the data becomes as the averages iron out the discrepancies.

When I started with this data, I was still adding my collection to the database, hence the fall at the very beginning. Over time though I could see why some finance experts were proclaiming music to be the new financial investment like wine and antiques. The first year showed an increase in the average price by 12.5 percent. By April of this year, that trend was looking to be going the same way, as by April 2014 the increase was 6 percent over the half year.

Although all of this is an aside to the joy of collecting and enjoyment of the music, it can be nevertheless mildly fascinating. I have watched and wondered, when Beatles original pressings, Led Zeppelin originals, etc, etc, just keep rocketing in price, will the bubble burst and all of a sudden, no-one will give a rats arse about vinyl. Whilst it wouldn't make any difference to me in terms of my desire to collect, it would have repercussions on my ability to source the pieces I need for my collection.

Adding these figures to the spreadsheet since April 2014, I started to notice a stall against the expected increase. While ups and downs are always expected after a couple of weeks the figures tend to right themselves. But after 3 months of near stagnation, I can't help but wonder if there is a change underway. Or maybe I'm just reading too much into it. Perhaps in the next couple of weeks everything will shoot up and the norm will be established. But it is interesting as to whether the market can carry on getting £4,000 for a Beatles Please Please Me, £1700 for a Led Zeppelin I and still keep an interest for those that want a '60s Cliff Richard single worth only 50 pence.

On a side note, another trend I've tried to keep a record of is the extent of my want list with a hope to seeing a down turn in the number of items still needed to complete my collection. Items are discovered and get added sometimes at the same rate that I'm ticking things off the list.

The last time I published this chart I was getting a little frustrated by the fact that the trend was going up rather than decreasing. Nearly for every item I bought I found two others I hadn't previously known about. But at last as you can see above, the trend is going the right way, down. You never know, in a couple of decades I may have this thing wrapped up......hmm,... all kind donations will be gratefully received!!

Grab a Piece of 4AD History

So its the year end. I have had a good year, this humble blog has hit 20,000 views which I never thought would be possible. In the UK, the popular magazine "Record Collector" has published the 200 top collectable music releases from the UK. In that listed featured the Lonely Is An Eyesore 4AD wooden box set. I still don't have this, and each year its worth just seems to soar and soar.

http://recordcollectormag.com/

It has made me think of how this magazine and the book they regularly publish, which I got for Xmas, called the Rare Record Price Guide 2014 are only published from a UK point of view, UK only releases in Pound Sterling. The pricing guide I can understand, but music is no longer national and record collecting in the last five or so years has become totally international. Most new releases such as the new Dead Can Dance album although printed in one country, does not belong to a single countries release area. When a release is sold online it can originate from anywhere in the world.

I suppose that is one thing that is making my collection interesting, is having completely unique releases for many different countries. The US, Canadian, French, German, Italian, Spanish, Greek releases all have unique labels, codes and matrices in the cases of many of the eighties releases. It's a shame that Record Collector don't get with the times and become more universal in the way that music collecting is.

I suppose you want to know what the most highly collectable music release had the number one spot for the UK? It was the former Beatles group The Quarrymen, with an acetate record recorded by them in a 'record straight to a record' shop. There was only one made and Paul McCartney owns it and it's worth about £200,000. Thank goodness I don't collect the Beatles. Although the estimated price for that seems to have stayed the same over the last couple of years, I have been wondering over the last year, how wise an investment music is. So since August 2012 I have been keeping a track of the worth of my collection on Discogs, using the average selling price and not the highest or lowest, and comparing that against the number of items I have in my collection. Although not incredibly accurate, it does give some inkling as to what the market is doing. Of course, there are some elements that could skew the figures, such as the fact that I may already have the cheaper items in my collection so newer items collected may be worth more and therefore give a false perspective. But I suppose I can only go on what I have. On the other side of the argument is the fact that new releases when limited, always fetch a high price to begin with as traders buy possible collectables to sell. This initially inflates the second hand market, but then after time the worth decreases. So I think overall, the tracker could be reasonably accurate.

As you can see from a half years worth of data, the general worth is slowly creeping up. It's certainly not conclusive, but I will be carrying this on over the next year to see what the trend does in future.

I have also been tracking since August 2012 how much progress I am making towards my target. It is a depressing state of affairs. As I have noted before, acquiring a release is another step towards a complete collection, but then I also find more items to collect. At the moment the count of wanted items is stable and thankfully slightly falling. It is a stark reminder of how difficult this project is. The awful state of traders quality to detail doesn't help either. The number of times this year that traders have advertised, incorrectly listed, or posted the wrong release seems to be getting worse, which just makes the process even more frustrating.

Which has happened again, which means that once again, I have a release to give away for the new year. This is another Cocteau Twins release, this one is a great freebie. I am giving away the original debut album "Garlands" released in the UK in 1982 on vinyl.

To win this great freebie, posted for free to the lucky winner, find me on Facebook under the name Jonny Halfhead, friend me and send me a message telling me why why you should win this original piece of 4AD history. A winner will be randomly picked from the entries as before.

How much is it worth?

Congratulations to Elizabeth who won the Cocteau Twins Italian 7” single of Pearly Dewdrops Drops. Watch this space as there may be more to come, seeing as I still keep buying releases twice!

There are changes in record collecting, and there have been interesting changes in 4AD collecting over the past couple of years. A couple of years ago, if you searched on ebay worldwide for “4AD”, there used to be on average 3 to 4 hundred pieces for sale. Now if you search for the same thing there can easily be 1500. In fact, a search done today returned 3741 items for sale. Smarter sellers are realising the best key words to use when adding an item on ebay.

This is probably a reflection on record selling online everywhere. There seems to be a myth that any vinyl, no matter how awful the music is, is collectable. I’m constantly finding the average middle aged couple has a couple of boxes of vinyl stuck up in their loft. When I ask why they are in the loft, they all seem to think that they are worth something and one day they will get around to selling them for a vast fortune.

Of course anyone who collects vinyl will know that the vast majority of vinyl is practically worthless. In the scheme of art collections around the world, vinyl is a poor mans hobby. The most valued item I can think of is the Quarrymen’s (The Beatles before they became The Beatles) single “That’ll be the day” of which only one (the original) exists and is owned by Paul McCartney. This has been valued at about £250,000. That sounds a lot of money, but this is the one single rarity that most likely dictates the value of all vinyl values below it. Very rare Beatles vinyl that was on general release fetch a couple of thousand pounds. Your average 1963 “Please Please Me” album will, if in really good condition, fetch £20 to £100. If your album is a late 1963 release then the value has fallen to half of this. This is the most famous in the world, and your original album from 1963 may not even be worth £10. Yet the myth prevails that your dusty and moldy set of Bay City Rollers LP’s will fetch a healthy sum when it comes to selling them!

Sorry, but it’s not going to happen. Many folk are really shocked and disappointed when they find out how little their vinyl is worth. This myth is probably not helped by the marketers on ebay. I’ve mentioned before how the same single can be purchased for £1 and can also be found for sale at £30. I believe the professional market purposely has some stock over inflated in price, knowing it will never sell, but helps push the average price of a release up. This is also why there are so many items for sale as many items are overpriced tactical additions. Right now there is a Pixies Doolittle German LP on a buy it now price of 133.48 Euros??!! This shouldn’t be any more than 20 Euros at the most. It must be gold plated!

The market is on the up. Values are going up. There was even suggestion to investment bankers a year ago to look into music collections as a viable alternative to wine and gold. Music does have a fickle following though and the popularity of music’s followers determines the value of any music’s collection pieces. In 20 years, there may be no market at all, as the general public loses any interest in the physical value of music. If that happens the value of collection pieces will hit rock bottom.

So why am I collecting if what I collect could be worth nothing in time? As signs are showing recently of a trend in a disinterest in the physical release of an album or single, I believe an intended experience by artists and bands to enjoy a full package including the covers, books and anything included within it, will be lost. This will be a diminished experience as a set of MP3’s will be just a small portion of the intended piece of art. This full experience needs to be preserved. I think this also includes how the same art was packaged for different audiences and countries.

I hope that the trend reverses and people see more the worth of a physical product. But this isn’t helped by the industry, that will obviously make lots more profit out of a download file than a fully produced CD.

The market is changing, which way it will go is anybody’s guess

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